NHL · resolved market
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Hershey Bears
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88c56f853316b7dfa403a4e1302f7010d5572fd6592e6ec7dff90b5b751109c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belleville Senatorsof Belleville Senators, Hershey Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,190 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Belleville Senators | 44c | 4,503$1,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,532.14 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked Hershey Bears | 56c | 2,486$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.88 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Hershey Bears | 57c | 1,134$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.14 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Hershey Bears | 56c | 223.21$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Hershey Bears | 55c | 140.75$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Hershey Bears | 58c | 121.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Hershey Bears | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Belleville Senators | 45c | 106$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Hershey Bears | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Belleville Senators | 41c | 92.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Hershey Bears | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Hershey Bears | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Belleville Senators | 42c | 78.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Hershey Bears | 60c | 67.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Hershey Bears | 55c | 57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Belleville Senators | 41c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Hershey Bears | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Hershey Bears | 44c | 30.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Hershey Bears | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed Hershey Bears | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.