TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Washington Nationalsof Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,053 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Baltimore Orioles40c3,750$1,500 inLost-$1,5001,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals60c3,746$2,247 inWon+$1,499.1411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles51c999.99$510 inLost-$510.3733864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals50c570.43$284 inWon+$286.0512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Washington Nationals65c461.52$300 inWon+$161.532,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Baltimore Orioles35c395.98$139 inLost-$138.871,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Baltimore Orioles19c287$54 inLost-$54.421,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Washington Nationals56c195.43$110 inWon+$85.936,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals74c144$107 inWon+$37.078,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Washington Nationals56c127.5$71 inWon+$56.144744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles40c109.09$44 inLost-$441,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals58c99.16$57 inWon+$41.8310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles42c54.46$23 inLost-$22.836,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles43c42.18$18 inLost-$18.272,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Washington Nationals63c42.04$26 inWon+$15.751,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Baltimore Orioles28c41.64$12 inLost-$11.8526854.1%145 W · 123 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Baltimore Orioles43c31.57$14 inLost-$13.521,14948.9%562 W · 587 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3162…d515backed Baltimore Orioles36c31.46$11 inLost-$11.3311155.9%62 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed Baltimore Orioles35c29.29$10 inLost-$10.2544737.4%167 W · 280 L-24.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Washington Nationals64c25$16 inWon+$91,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Washington Nationals55c24.5$14 inWon+$10.982,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.