Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Invision vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88e9eeb5879c6bbacbe4f5a284f9da991847c67efc2632246d0c79482e99e8ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof Invision, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Invision | 1c | 1,867$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 613 | 2.1%13 W · 600 L | -23.4wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked summer bear | 61c | 1,866$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.55 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Invision | 39c | 1,446$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.49 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Invision | 27c | 913.45$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.48 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Invision | 21c | 604.31$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.02 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed summer bear | 74c | 499.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Invision | 33c | 464.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.82 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked summer bear | 67c | 455.27$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.24 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Invision | 31c | 424.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Invision | 35c | 400.01$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked summer bear | 59c | 384.1$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Invision | 22c | 260.08$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6f…9f0abacked Invision | 26c | 256.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Invision | 42c | 235.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed summer bear | 57c | 220.96$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked summer bear | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Invision | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Invision | 27c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Invision | 17c | 86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Invision | 15c | 83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Invision | 40c | 78.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…bc2fbacked summer bear | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Invision | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked summer bear | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Invision vs summer bear - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Invision vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bsummer bear won
- Dota 2: Invision vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
- Game Handicap: SB (-1.5) vs Invision (+1.5)summer bear won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.