Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Invision vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7ee852813aa5732ef8779dae26992b05ca2505e364eb392bda8ce782a7a4046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- summer bearof Invision, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked summer bear | 63c | 2,006$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.09 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked summer bear | 69c | 1,413$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.18 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Invision | 31c | 1,398$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.38 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed summer bear | 65c | 1,268$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.77 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Invision | 28c | 713.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 319 | 36.7%117 W · 202 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Invision | 33c | 696.17$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.91 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Invision | 36c | 575.09$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.21 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Invision | 37c | 537.06$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed summer bear | 70c | 529.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.9 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked Invision | 35c | 500$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.18 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Invision | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.93 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked summer bear | 60c | 464.33$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Invision | 19c | 395.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Invision | 33c | 324.29$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Invision | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed Invision | 31c | 297$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…fd45backed Invision | 35c | 284$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.78 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked summer bear | 66c | 267.51$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.89 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Invision | 31c | 261.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Invision | 35c | 257.26$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Invision | 39c | 256.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -7.3wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Invision | 35c | 251.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Invision | 28c | 239.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…416cbacked Invision | 35c | 215.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Invision | 33c | 181.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Invision | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Invision | 35c | 178$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Invision | 35c | 132.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Invision | 33c | 107$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed summer bear | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed summer bear | 66c | 99.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…3d66backed Invision | 32c | 94.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 109 | 35.8%39 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a12…a9a7backed Invision | 33c | 86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked summer bear | 64c | 73.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Invision | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Invision | 39c | 67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Invision | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…d790backed Invision | 18c | 64.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Invision | 41c | 62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Invision | 35c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65f…a4e4backed Invision | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Invision | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe489…8804backed summer bear | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Invision | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked summer bear | 66c | 45.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Invision | 40c | 44.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked summer bear | 66c | 40.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed summer bear | 58c | 40.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 194 | 40.7%79 W · 115 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a3…5b70backed Invision | 37c | 38.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed summer bear | 65c | 30.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed summer bear | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…d388backed summer bear | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Invision vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Invision vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bsummer bear won
- Dota 2: Invision vs summer bear - Game 2 Winnersummer bear won
- Game Handicap: SB (-1.5) vs Invision (+1.5)summer bear won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.