Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88fbe3f50138932f1cecd397c297abd22b384332af6ed15b0a670dac957cede5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 49c | 2,587$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…7e2fbacked Under | 80c | 2,429$1,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,936.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3234…8b1abacked Under | 57c | 1,855$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 22c | 1,171$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.73 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 27c | 1,074$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.57 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 700$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 78c | 632.56$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 47c | 627.85$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.26 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 379.53$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.1 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 54c | 291.72$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.53 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 31c | 263.76$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.81 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 45c | 214.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.19 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Over | 53c | 174.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 56c | 156.15$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.52 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…1db6backed Under | 77c | 128.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 50c | 95.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 50c | 95.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 55c | 95.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 50c | 92.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…b10fbacked Under | 77c | 64.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…e71cbacked Over | 53c | 55.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 51c | 49.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 207 | 69.6%144 W · 63 L | +31.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Under | 49c | 40.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 55c | 35.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 40c | 29.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 52c | 28.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)Yokohama F·Marinos won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 1.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.