Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$320 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8926b71574397d3aef6f23b88c39271e1cacc0fa7e19c21b17ac3d2ae819219d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4a3…490fbacked Yes | 11c | 687.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 60c | 500$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.5 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 20c | 387$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 24c | 299.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 40c | 284.18$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 96.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 15c | 84.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 72c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fb…f24cbacked Yes | 36c | 39.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cc…4d2dbacked No | 57c | 30.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297d…ff0abacked Yes | 49c | 24.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4d…a979backed Yes | 49c | 22.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 51c | 21.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed No | 74c | 14.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at >$320 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $295-$300 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $300-$305 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $305-$310 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $310-$315 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close at $315-$320 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.