MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892837b237fab7d5f3a2e13aa0ac4053dc1ef2ce2e3bf5eb444ddb70e9ed5b10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,963 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 450$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed San Diego Padres | 48c | 249.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 239.4$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.84 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 200.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.52 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 172.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 160.28$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 110.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…d9e6backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 98.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 68.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Seattle Mariners | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed San Diego Padres | 45c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed San Diego Padres | 77c | 48.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed San Diego Padres | 51c | 45.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…7cfabacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d6c1backed San Diego Padres | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked San Diego Padres | 58c | 22.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.