Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8934cd1eb329574a084fde4f6f60f9c3f512f6bbf443739376f081edb7a1e566
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Under | 46c | 12,396$5,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,694.05 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Over | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Over | 54c | 5,600$3,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,023.99 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 54c | 1,515$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.24 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Over | 54c | 1,501$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.75 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 46c | 1,197$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.55 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Under | 49c | 1,011$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.57 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Under | 46c | 979.67$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.02 | 169 | 33.1%56 W · 113 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…e6ffbacked Under | 46c | 971.74$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.04 | 159 | 50.9%81 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked Under | 46c | 792.57$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.99 | 293 | 38.6%113 W · 180 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Under | 46c | 420.11$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.46 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e8…fafcbacked Under | 45c | 310$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.5 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…f8d8backed Under | 45c | 289$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.95 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…4ff2backed Under | 45c | 285.62$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…dea8backed Under | 46c | 166.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 55c | 51.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 1,576 | 48.4%763 W · 813 L | +17.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Over | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -13.2wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6748…3c4cbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3?this page
- Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill?No won
- Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5)Hanwha Life Esports won
- Game Handicap: HLE (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5)T1 won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5)Hanwha Life Esports won
- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5)Hanwha Life Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- Games Total: O/U 4.5Under won
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSIHanwha Life Esports won
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 WinnerHanwha Life Esports won
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 WinnerT1 won
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 WinnerHanwha Life Esports won
- LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 WinnerHanwha Life Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.