Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x893a986bfd51cc68c280e95874a749e79dddcd5f9b73a0965e93f578c17a1b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 630.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 5c | 517.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4850backed No | 64c | 400.77$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 14c | 354.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 36c | 330.77$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 13c | 229.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 33c | 195.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 76c | 189.31$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 145.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 32c | 132.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 16c | 131.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 130.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 10c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 120.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 109.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 107.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 12c | 92.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 24c | 90.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 81.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 30c | 77.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 73.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a13…fb54backed Yes | 15c | 71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +191.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 70.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 18c | 60.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 22c | 45.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 25c | 42.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 40.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 63c | 34.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 30.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked No | 69c | 25.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.