Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f349a0690e29ee97783829273c85bfba5de39de7e15abb90ddfa4b261bbda93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04d2…4850backed Yes | 15c | 621.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 423.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 274.34$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 261.19$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 26c | 231.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.81 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 231.18$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 228.5$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.95 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 78c | 199.75$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 31c | 199.33$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.71 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 26c | 167.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 27c | 133.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.19 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 30c | 119.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 114$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 103.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 95.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 28c | 82.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 75c | 78.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 39c | 74.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 74.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 66.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfc…26febacked Yes | 27c | 59.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 72c | 55.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 30c | 54.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 30c | 54.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed Yes | 41c | 48.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 44.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…c84fbacked No | 71c | 40.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 26c | 39.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 33c | 39.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d6…eb5cbacked Yes | 32c | 38.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 34.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 65c | 33.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 30c | 33.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 32.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 34c | 30.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 72c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 74c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 75c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1441…0b51backed Yes | 50c | 25.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 70c | 25.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 24.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 58c | 23.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 67c | 20.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 76c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 18.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 18.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on July 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.