Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x894ddc457959f26bdd9aff2773a667f316e3eb9b5e0b58227d367576a3f0d50b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tundra Esportsof Tundra Esports, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Tundra Esports | 43c | 4,707$2,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,683.03 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…f688backed Team Falcons | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Team Falcons | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Tundra Esports | 43c | 1,137$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.21 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked Tundra Esports | 43c | 560$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.2 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Team Falcons | 57c | 485.68$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.84 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…d1a4backed Tundra Esports | 53c | 384.02$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.19 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Tundra Esports | 52c | 383.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.91 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Team Falcons | 59c | 284.75$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Falcons | 54c | 271.91$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons | 52c | 268.73$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed Tundra Esports | 46c | 222.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.09 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x423f…eedcbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 221$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.69 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…3ab0backed Team Falcons | 59c | 205.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.09 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Team Falcons | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…5922backed Tundra Esports | 46c | 183.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.55 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed Tundra Esports | 44c | 145.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Team Falcons | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Falcons | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c0…23d8backed Tundra Esports | 46c | 98.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 239 | 57.3%137 W · 102 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Tundra Esports | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Team Falcons | 52c | 48.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…9ac3backed Team Falcons | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Team Falcons | 55c | 22.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Tundra Esports | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2Tundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 WinnerTundra Esports won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 WinnerTundra Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.