TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tundra Esportsof Team Falcons, Tundra Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$437,280
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$514,952

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,280 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6adc…bebabacked Team Falcons30c168,877$49,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,989.63933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Tundra Esports70c159,125$111,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,145.752356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Falcons27c50,995$13,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,768.6428748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed Tundra Esports73c18,320$13,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,946.411359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Tundra Esports73c15,558$11,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,200.8532854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Tundra Esports74c13,673$10,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,613.8515047.3%71 W · 79 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Tundra Esports72c13,672$9,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,831.427645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cc8…0fa2backed Tundra Esports73c12,950$9,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,496.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc38…5670backed Team Falcons28c12,000$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,36020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Falcons28c10,923$3,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,058.4622848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Tundra Esports71c7,000$4,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Falcons27c6,896$1,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,861.9119147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Tundra Esports72c6,678$4,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.834358.1%25 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Tundra Esports72c6,585$4,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.867357.5%42 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Tundra Esports72c6,384$4,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,760.963551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Team Falcons30c5,241$1,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,552.3533746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Tundra Esports72c5,038$3,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.6742650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Tundra Esports75c4,892$3,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.6286949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Team Falcons17c4,283$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.498328.9%24 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Falcons27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08011839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Falcons27c4,000$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,09089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Team Falcons27c4,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0809839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Tundra Esports76c3,768$2,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.9710741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Team Falcons11c3,530$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.2916821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Falcons29c3,433$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.7762650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfffd…a1e5backed Team Falcons12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef7…b721backed Tundra Esports73c2,850$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…5f73backed Tundra Esports79c2,845$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.897143.7%31 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Team Falcons27c2,777$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.7914515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x216f…03bbbacked Team Falcons17c2,684$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4504652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Team Falcons22c2,627$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.022857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8da…a6e6backed Tundra Esports69c2,332$1,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.921872.2%13 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+55.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Team Falcons21c2,106$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.077844.9%35 W · 43 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c8a…d6b2backed Team Falcons32c2,095$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Team Falcons31c2,025$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.083847.4%18 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Tundra Esports72c2,000$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5536535.4%23 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbec5…8f77backed Team Falcons27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5407835.9%28 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Tundra Esports73c1,874$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.156850%34 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Tundra Esports70c1,783$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.3316248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3a…780cbacked Team Falcons28c1,500$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4205839.7%23 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Falcons28c1,500$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.9913441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Team Falcons29c1,462$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.4615452.6%81 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44e5…3c33backed Team Falcons23c1,399$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Tundra Esports72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.9280443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fd6…92efbacked Team Falcons28c1,378$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb22a…8e6cbacked Team Falcons28c1,361$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons27c1,347$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.1780742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Tundra Esports72c1,342$966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.7611253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Team Falcons28c1,076$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.3720827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Tundra Esports69c1,033$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.351546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03df…1299backed Team Falcons1c1,002$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.084628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Team Falcons10c944.66$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4721350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Tundra Esports66c868.63$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.3455157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Tundra Esports72c833.33$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3329160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Team Falcons28c832.14$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2331650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Team Falcons28c808.38$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.355749.1%28 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tundra Esports77c801.8$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.81,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Falcons28c799.95$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9969835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Team Falcons31c788$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.651833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf023…4b61backed Tundra Esports72c766.14$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.62560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe0…0263backed Tundra Esports73c724$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.591560%9 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Team Falcons28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20016641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44fc…9728backed Tundra Esports74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1821560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+42.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5554…98f9backed Tundra Esports73c684.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.936066.7%40 W · 20 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Tundra Esports71c661$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.695850%29 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd6f7…a146backed Team Falcons28c642.86$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Tundra Esports79c616.91$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.082,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Team Falcons27c544.85$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.1164744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Team Falcons28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14037754.9%207 W · 170 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd000…509cbacked Tundra Esports73c479.45$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked Team Falcons31c474.19$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14714538.6%56 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Team Falcons23c466.67$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10817353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Team Falcons22c437$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3619242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9317…5a5fbacked Tundra Esports73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.964072.5%29 W · 11 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+18.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xece2…f453backed Tundra Esports71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf393…9b65backed Tundra Esports73c389.99$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.087650%38 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7646…b2a1backed Team Falcons20c378.57$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe81c…a724backed Tundra Esports73c372.6$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.64763.8%30 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked Team Falcons33c363.97$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.119223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08d8…3c07backed Team Falcons28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Tundra Esports71c356.94$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.1774549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Team Falcons29c350$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.128244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f46…cddbbacked Team Falcons19c340$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.224052.1%125 W · 115 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f0…3206backed Tundra Esports67c339.99$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.23545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f55…e528backed Tundra Esports73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+124%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f8…1655backed Tundra Esports69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933060%18 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Tundra Esports72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8414547.6%69 W · 76 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Tundra Esports76c282.06$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.692334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid+27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b9…8267backed Tundra Esports72c271.89$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.84969.4%34 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Tundra Esports73c265.13$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.593655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6705…17febacked Tundra Esports73c255.82$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Team Falcons12c238.69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7213251.5%68 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Team Falcons28c220$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.62441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ed…89ebbacked Team Falcons15c211.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Tundra Esports69c211$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.415565.5%36 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tundra Esports70c209.51$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1960542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Tundra Esports78c206.63$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4512720.5%26 W · 101 L-22.6wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.9%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Tundra Esports74c204.97$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.398950.6%45 W · 44 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410e…1209backed Team Falcons28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed Tundra Esports73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.