NHL · resolved market
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x895911332b956558d799edab895f08e936a4ffbb5589de4e227937b524384639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Stars, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e29…9c58backed Ducks | 61c | 3,896$2,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…1cabbacked Ducks | 59c | 1,694$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…69fabacked Stars | 39c | 1,526$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…de47backed Stars | 41c | 1,500$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8571…61fabacked Stars | 39c | 1,356$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d81…56b1backed Stars | 39c | 1,341$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…9076backed Stars | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d42…c873backed Stars | 39c | 1,199$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…dfb4backed Ducks | 61c | 1,078$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8612…5ea6backed Stars | 41c | 840$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…3be5backed Ducks | 59c | 800$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02d9…e7cebacked Ducks | 59c | 700$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abb…f7e4backed Ducks | 59c | 700$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5a…ee3cbacked Ducks | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…e0bfbacked Stars | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…a159backed Stars | 41c | 436$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…7de9backed Stars | 41c | 418$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…4aa1backed Stars | 39c | 390$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…a8c8backed Ducks | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…4569backed Ducks | 61c | 248$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946c…4909backed Ducks | 61c | 226$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa948…e45abacked Ducks | 61c | 222$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29cc…493abacked Ducks | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Ducks | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…442dbacked Ducks | 61c | 142$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Ducks | 59c | 132.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Stars | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Stars | 41c | 99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…3911backed Stars | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe85…0628backed Ducks | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…e6a4backed Ducks | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Stars | 38c | 57.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 448 | 48.9%219 W · 229 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…1d73backed Stars | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…9d96backed Ducks | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Stars | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 178 | 45.5%81 W · 97 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…df86backed Stars | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Stars (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. StarsDucks won
- Ducks vs. Stars: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.