Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x897ae75cb8be05307999c0ea5a619e5cce092041b7d2313a58bba264d716648f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xece8…8b68backed No | 2c | 650.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 14c | 596.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 21c | 499.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 478.51$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 311.68$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 9c | 251.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 186.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 7c | 178.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 114.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 26c | 105.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 99.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed No | 70c | 98.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…2d89backed No | 12c | 98.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 30c | 96.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 94.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.34 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 19c | 92.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 75c | 88.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 73.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 32c | 72.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked No | 72c | 67.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.65 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 76c | 64.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 61.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 59.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 31c | 59.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 28c | 59.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 68c | 57.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 56.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…33d0backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 33c | 49.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 21c | 49.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 78c | 45.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed No | 67c | 43.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed No | 78c | 37.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 37c | 35.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 80c | 30.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…fe5bbacked No | 79c | 26.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e6…762ebacked Yes | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…cfd7backed No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80fe…ddd5backed No | 75c | 15.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 79c | 14.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 77c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.