Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e50b9d47a668de435eaab07cdcb1729103d18495b573dac4474a38560a2817a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 3c | 446.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 9c | 331.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 15c | 244.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 27c | 235.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 222.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 207.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 18c | 111.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa479…ef6bbacked Yes | 21c | 108.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 75c | 97.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked No | 78c | 95.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 30c | 93.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 73c | 73.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…dc4ebacked Yes | 32c | 64.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 73c | 62.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 73c | 60.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 59.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 25c | 53.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 74c | 40.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce93…b03bbacked Yes | 32c | 40.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 39.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 32.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 31.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 74c | 31.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 27.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 26.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 76c | 25.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 69c | 23.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 73c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 20.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.