Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x897cf2c777cc5f07c1edd6e55b0c6f4d21a770f185c4590af28a2529c880fec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 21c | 4,004$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.18 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 1,686$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.82 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 1,200$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84bb…25d3backed Yes | 6c | 1,144$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 80c | 422.14$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 79c | 315$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 304.8$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…87dcbacked Yes | 21c | 269.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…e55ebacked Yes | 6c | 239.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 80c | 171.55$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 409 | 58.9%241 W · 168 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 80c | 171.55$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 260 | 60.8%158 W · 102 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 80c | 171.55$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 80c | 171.55$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 80c | 171.55$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 133 | 60.2%80 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 80c | 140.7$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 383 | 59.3%227 W · 156 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 132 | 65.2%86 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 98.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 14c | 95.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 641 | 43.4%278 W · 363 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8e…39b0backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 77.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…7dedbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 79c | 67.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 21c | 59.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 292 | 44.9%131 W · 161 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 52.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 79c | 50.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 80c | 46.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 80c | 46.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 151 | 57.6%87 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…a0c9backed No | 80c | 46.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 67cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 80c | 46.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 75c | 39.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…7d5bbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked No | 80c | 27.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2720backed No | 80c | 23.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed No | 79c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46dc…92c3backed No | 80c | 13.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…ad64backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 78c | 12.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Heracles Almelo vs. AFC Ajax end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will Heracles Almelo win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.