Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89883bf35f689965aa59bde9c2177d1a4b31cb316cbea86e3a1d462b970ca77f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, ALIS VENTORUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed ALIS VENTORUS | 37c | 1,017$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.75 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f1…8cc6backed ALIS VENTORUS | 49c | 395.03$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Rune Eaters | 49c | 337.55$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.8 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…99a3backed Rune Eaters | 65c | 334.82$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.19 | 237 | 36.7%87 W · 150 L | -17.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 15c | 320.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed ALIS VENTORUS | 32c | 302.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed ALIS VENTORUS | 29c | 295.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Rune Eaters | 55c | 293.73$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.46 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed ALIS VENTORUS | 21c | 281.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed ALIS VENTORUS | 15c | 270$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed ALIS VENTORUS | 14c | 261.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Rune Eaters | 59c | 251.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Rune Eaters | 55c | 220.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 56c | 210.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.87 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 187.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Rune Eaters | 74c | 166.29$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed ALIS VENTORUS | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Rune Eaters | 77c | 149.05$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…76d7backed Rune Eaters | 71c | 147.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed ALIS VENTORUS | 70c | 139.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Rune Eaters | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed ALIS VENTORUS | 69c | 129.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Rune Eaters | 59c | 129.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Rune Eaters | 67c | 99.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Rune Eaters | 45c | 96.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed ALIS VENTORUS | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Rune Eaters | 32c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4f…9b0cbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 59c | 65.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed ALIS VENTORUS | 35c | 64.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Rune Eaters | 64c | 62.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Rune Eaters | 40c | 54.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Rune Eaters | 72c | 54.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed ALIS VENTORUS | 57c | 48.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8681…ef99backed Rune Eaters | 80c | 39.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Rune Eaters | 74c | 39.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 28c | 37.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Rune Eaters | 59c | 34.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Rune Eaters | 67c | 30.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 69c | 27.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd689…57d9backed Rune Eaters | 71c | 15.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs ALIS VENTORUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs ALIS VENTORUS - Game 1 WinnerALIS VENTORUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.