Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Fulham end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89b086c6255e0c11f2d25f82cd59ae128aa93f67613fed62f5a6b37475223d29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6691…17cfbacked Yes | 1c | 10,667$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.67 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 3c | 7,469$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.08 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…a111backed Yes | 23c | 2,791$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed No | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.97 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +12.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 77c | 1,388$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.91 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1782…d913backed Yes | 24c | 541.67$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 77c | 509.36$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…0a62backed Yes | 50c | 314.11$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.06 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.6wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes | 55c | 220.08$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked No | 77c | 194.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked No | 38c | 135.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6807…391ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c4…6b1abacked Yes | 59c | 84.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…3c84backed Yes | 23c | 59.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed No | 77c | 34.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Fulham end in a draw?this page
- Will Fulham beat Manchester United?No won
- Will Manchester United beat Fulham?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.