Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a34184ef715d515f0f1d508bbe25c0d0add4bd325b32d190f2a420d78c111af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 13c | 1,766$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.43 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8371…947fbacked No | 14c | 1,356$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.77 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 63c | 1,266$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.96 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 528.95$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 39c | 518.46$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.24 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 77c | 378.97$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.23 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 296.63$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 56c | 280$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 61c | 241.8$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.51 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 209.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 59c | 209.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 13c | 204.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 23c | 186.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 184.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 180.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…bde6backed No | 66c | 179.65$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 33c | 178.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.44 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 33c | 177.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 138.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.64 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 37c | 137.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 36c | 117.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.09 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 117.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 57c | 111.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 45c | 100.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 76c | 98.41$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 20c | 98.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 47c | 94.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 56c | 94.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 24c | 94.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 90.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 88.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 32c | 88.32$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.77 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 40c | 76.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 39c | 67.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 66c | 52.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 50.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 68c | 48.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 63c | 43.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e20…9434backed Yes | 34c | 43.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +197.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 57c | 38.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 66c | 37.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…256cbacked No | 54c | 33.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 34c | 31.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 57c | 29.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 44c | 29.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 39c | 28.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 27.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 44c | 25.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 62c | 24.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…95e3backed No | 62c | 23.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed No | 63c | 22.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 21.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 65c | 21.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…f1d8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 71cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 61c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…b7b1backed No | 57c | 19.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 55cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…ad95backed No | 61c | 19.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…e5f1backed No | 59c | 19.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 79c | 18.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 69c | 17.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 59c | 17.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 16.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x287c…81b2backed No | 66c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.