Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd15e028ab97308fbfa327c0ed2fc8ff9093d1603cf631d0295da5facf0118cb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 521.87$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 14c | 477.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.47 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 29c | 319.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.55 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 259.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 243.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 239.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 24c | 221.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 214.03$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.78 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 201.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 77c | 190.25$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 129.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 127.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 121.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 12c | 120.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 104.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 75c | 103.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 26c | 95.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 92.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 85.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 29c | 83.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 78.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 67.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 22c | 66.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecb…e234backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 43c | 63.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 22c | 51.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 23c | 50.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 76c | 49.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 72c | 48.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 26c | 46.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes | 30c | 35.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 56c | 34.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 57c | 31.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 66c | 29.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 76c | 29.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 28.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2832…f488backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…d7a7backed No | 50c | 26.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e3…2290backed No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 21.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 51c | 21.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…9ec7backed No | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 63c | 19.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 80c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 74c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 79c | 13.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc2…6637backed No | 78c | 12.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.