Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed6939bb0d9b0d57816c16a6402598a9990bed8627535ffd4568af88dd3e6f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 17c | 1,156$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.89 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed Yes | 73c | 1,084$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.23 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 42c | 620.04$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.15 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 76c | 416.56$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 77c | 361.63$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.08 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057b…9819backed Yes | 19c | 335.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 325.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 285.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 267.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 223$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 198.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 180.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 23c | 163$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.51 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 23c | 119.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 11c | 109.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 99.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 95.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 89.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…c8c2backed Yes | 22c | 83.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…0201backed Yes | 14c | 80.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 77.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 20c | 71.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 70.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed No | 50c | 70.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 69.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 80c | 67.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 31c | 59.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 49.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 44.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 27c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 79c | 42.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 80c | 24.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 79c | 24.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 80c | 24.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 80c | 21.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…0fb1backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 70c | 17.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 80c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 46°F or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.