Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a428e07b09f9b5c3f7a72332bce527ae4d004a2facd015a4475dc46aaf063c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35cd…a60abacked Yes | 57c | 962.88$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 62c | 899.99$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.49 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 43c | 623.7$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.9 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 38c | 623.34$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 278.88$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked No | 39c | 193.83$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 41c | 182.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 59c | 177.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.74 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 47c | 170$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 37c | 152.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed No | 19c | 135$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | +15.1wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 61c | 122.63$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51e…1236backed Yes | 65c | 111.15$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…3d6cbacked Yes | 43c | 109.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 95.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 43c | 93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 58c | 75.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 60c | 75.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 75.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 60c | 73.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 69c | 71.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 67c | 71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 20c | 68.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 48c | 62.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 55.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 54.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 52.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 49c | 50.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 49.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 61c | 49.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 45.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 63c | 43.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 29c | 38.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 43c | 36.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 36.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 33c | 35.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 63c | 29.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 49c | 28.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 24.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…b788backed No | 41c | 24.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…1b58backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 61c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.