World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a58aac1ee61c59c14a430d9d134c257333867b056332f9a46da00f13c09e7a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 31c | 178.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 151.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2837…fd84backed Yes | 72c | 103$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 43c | 102.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.77 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 77c | 99.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +234.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 77c | 92.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 66cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 24c | 91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 70.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 68c | 69.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 68.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 72c | 67.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked No | 63c | 42.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 63c | 42.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 58c | 26.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 78c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 69c | 23.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 68c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.