World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90faa54673618256e3a6dc7f09e6721cedd9ed6ba0989944f295eee9667b2a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,034$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.59 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 45c | 454.03$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.93 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 44c | 436$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.84 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 296$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.24 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 175.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 56c | 112.73$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 44c | 112.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 9c | 108.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 104.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 102$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 43c | 94.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 94.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 55c | 74.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 74.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 73.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 55c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 67.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 57.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 68c | 44.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 55c | 43.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…8662backed Yes | 48c | 41.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 41.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 44c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…2202backed Yes | 44c | 24.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed No | 75c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 17.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.