Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a8bb01f76b083116ea28a20759dbc046765170f0ab1fe8ff257eca92d866ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 544.15$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 77c | 346.42$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.27 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 270$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 247.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 7c | 238.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.48 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 10c | 233.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.83 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 208.38$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 60c | 187.34$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.22 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 13c | 185.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 26c | 169.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 165.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 20c | 165.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.37 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 46c | 153.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 15c | 99.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 20c | 98.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 21c | 94.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 91.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 36c | 80.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 23c | 79.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 78.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 78.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 41c | 72.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 78c | 64.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 63.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…a970backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 46c | 54.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 48.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 45c | 39.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…08c5backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 26.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 25.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 24.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.