Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6a7a33fd2807db1e66b7bee224d64b536754c990d29d67130f22c349be2561f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 33c | 3,534$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.98 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 79c | 1,447$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.24 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 53c | 822.7$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.49 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 24c | 722.45$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.86 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 561.68$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 43c | 414.24$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.32 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 79c | 400$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.16 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 44c | 324.8$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 272.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 269.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 253.82$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 25c | 244.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 14c | 211.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 185.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf757…db38backed Yes | 57c | 177.69$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 154.22$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 66c | 152.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 75c | 135.07$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.93 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 75c | 134.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…cedfbacked Yes | 75c | 131.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.69 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 28c | 110.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 92.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 88.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 78c | 87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked No | 18c | 84.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 31c | 80.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 80.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 75.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 65c | 68.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 20c | 66.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.43 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 66.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 75c | 66.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 79c | 63.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 76c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 50c | 44.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 26c | 43.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 58c | 40.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 59c | 37.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 35c | 35.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 33.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 59c | 33.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 39c | 26.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed No | 71c | 22.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 79c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1d…8e23backed Yes | 75c | 17.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 69c | 16.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 75c | 15.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…7952backed No | 78c | 12.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.