Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d3682ac8b0596501979881de7dfb15de2371b8dc728434f741eaa70ba89b9e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 16c | 386.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 74c | 269.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.18 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 255.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 254.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 5c | 237.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 75c | 198.88$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 24c | 170.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 9c | 169.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 15c | 167.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 7c | 162.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 153.53$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 150.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 14c | 138.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 22c | 138.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 137.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…467bbacked No | 78c | 128.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 125.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7531…35debacked Yes | 25c | 114.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 31c | 109.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e9…6df4backed Yes | 20c | 103.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 20c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 16c | 95.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 90.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…adf9backed No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 26c | 83.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…3304backed Yes | 16c | 82.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 98 | 30.6%30 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 80.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 30c | 77.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 29c | 70.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 56.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…cedfbacked Yes | 25c | 50.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 26c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 47.81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 78c | 40.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 29c | 35.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714c…9c5fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 63c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 15.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.