Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 78°F or higher on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a95b28b6bd87802c69390174a6094221435970a0489ce0f30600a473b5313cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,314 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddac…71cebacked No | 1c | 1,033$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 24c | 665.47$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.81 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 22c | 558.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 76c | 495.69$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 25c | 420.66$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.06 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 19c | 418.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…2f18backed No | 17c | 402.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 76c | 392.52$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 347.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xccc3…f918backed No | 30c | 341.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 8c | 329.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 326.99$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…0d01backed No | 11c | 323.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 78c | 300.8$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 10c | 277.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 23c | 270.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed No | 19c | 225.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 79c | 205$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 76c | 188.04$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed No | 29c | 172.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked No | 29c | 167.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 76c | 153$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 19c | 143.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 128.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…58ebbacked No | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 22c | 111$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 65c | 107.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 103.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed No | 18c | 101.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 100.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 80c | 99.73$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…5d8bbacked No | 28c | 90.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…5ec7backed No | 24c | 81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…775dbacked No | 17c | 79.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 17c | 74.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 73.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 21c | 70.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 28c | 68.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed Yes | 76c | 65.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 74c | 62.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87c…0798backed No | 23c | 62.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 75c | 59.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 31c | 57.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80c…a113backed No | 18c | 57.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5869…071dbacked No | 18c | 56.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 80c | 55.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 77c | 54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 26c | 51.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 22c | 51.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 80c | 50.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513b…2ca1backed Yes | 75c | 47.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 31c | 38.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 73c | 37.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…dbb7backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…cba5backed Yes | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 74cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…3664backed Yes | 67c | 25.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8041…32a6backed No | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 71c | 22.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…ce9abacked Yes | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 74c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba5…dc25backed Yes | 80c | 16.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…9756backed Yes | 73c | 14.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed Yes | 78c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 78°F or higher on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 63°F or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.