Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aa10785b30b6a8fb4aff001875e11d630dd20bdc3278b866f5fba23de260cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 33c | 1,782$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes | 30c | 1,012$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.61 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 821.59$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.7 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 47c | 654.38$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.3 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 13c | 627$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.76 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 64c | 589.86$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 523.28$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.43 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1e…5d9bbacked Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…3d5fbacked Yes | 78c | 421.47$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.79 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Yes | 74c | 407.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 366.32$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 28c | 357.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.32 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 65c | 257.57$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked No | 70c | 230$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…342dbacked Yes | 78c | 210.18$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 184.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.89 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 153.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…7bccbacked Yes | 48c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 63c | 124.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed No | 14c | 115.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 20c | 92.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…e27bbacked Yes | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 36c | 89.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed No | 71c | 82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 66.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…b9e3backed Yes | 46c | 64.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2550…8813backed No | 72c | 52.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…1734backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 27c | 40.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Yes | 80c | 39.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…f418backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 72c | 23.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…a6ebbacked Yes | 73c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-01-23?No won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.