Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf858b7575c034efda8c3b4bff6bd63da300426d3764afecba4285600cf8dbf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,341
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed No | 12c | 7,844$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,923.31 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked No | 9c | 3,030$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,754.62 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 48c | 2,542$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.9 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 39c | 1,386$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.81 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 55c | 1,320$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 65c | 1,200$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.49 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 11c | 1,022$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.39 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 57c | 876.11$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.33 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 29c | 800$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 61c | 735.21$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.48 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 43c | 703.79$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.15 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 71c | 665.97$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 8c | 632.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33c…2bd1backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 61c | 548.48$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.55 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 401.19$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 61c | 324.51$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.62 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 47c | 320.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.81 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Yes | 33c | 303.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…1c70backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…a6ebbacked Yes | 4c | 244.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9346…ea03backed Yes | 32c | 200.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…b904backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 30c | 170.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba07…1c15backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 37c | 136.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…7a1cbacked Yes | 71c | 131.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed No | 12c | 128.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +173.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…bc44backed No | 15c | 124.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +321.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…0cccbacked No | 15c | 120$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 15c | 119.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 48c | 118.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a89…196fbacked Yes | 63c | 72.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694c…eb70backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 57c | 40.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…a70dbacked Yes | 58c | 38.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e6…3363backed Yes | 58c | 36.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 46c | 33.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…b2ccbacked Yes | 63c | 31.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…3db8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…5765backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked No | 43c | 29.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4557…bf49backed Yes | 64c | 26.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 54c | 25.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…c19dbacked Yes | 75c | 20.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-23?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?Yes won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-01-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.