Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-01-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x895d88ef0f716985f8a63a167f3666edc206780c67aaaf172acbbf58acb7e8c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 61c | 2,246$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.86 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes | 46c | 2,192$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 3c | 997.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 55c | 711.47$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.89 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed Yes | 23c | 434.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 42c | 399.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 57c | 389.17$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.58 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 57c | 272.21$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.05 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 43c | 255.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd969…342dbacked Yes | 10c | 240.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 232.96$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 43c | 230.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 44c | 229.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Yes | 23c | 217.34$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 55c | 196$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 43c | 173.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…187cbacked No | 56c | 167.79$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.73 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…2ecabacked Yes | 12c | 167.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…b02ebacked Yes | 17c | 110.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed No | 58c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 44c | 58.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed No | 59c | 26.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-01-23?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-01-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.