Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aad600e4c664924c9b7df5630d650752e3dc84c991c38ec39cadfb89d0956c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshall Thundering Herdof Marshall Thundering Herd, Old Dominion Monarchs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 54c | 4,157$2,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.24 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Old Dominion Monarchs | 46c | 3,756$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.6 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Old Dominion Monarchs | 45c | 1,240$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.84 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 54c | 991.31$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Old Dominion Monarchs | 46c | 505.5$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.53 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 55c | 300$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…d58cbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 54c | 201.93$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Old Dominion Monarchs | 45c | 121.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 55c | 66.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Old Dominion Monarchs | 45c | 65.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Old Dominion Monarchs | 52c | 51.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 195 | 54.9%107 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Old Dominion Monarchs | 54c | 19.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-6.5)this page
- Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Marshall Thundering HerdMarshall Thundering Herd won
- Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 159.5Over won
- Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 160.5Over won
- Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Marshall Thundering Herd: O/U 161.5Over won
- Spread: Marshall Thundering Herd (-7.5)Marshall Thundering Herd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.