Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on January 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aca76768e9914683db70559f20a8cfc1bbc32c2343a4076ba26975300c47f6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 0c | 18,100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,443$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,703$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,249$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.48 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…a96ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,019$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…80febacked Yes | 17c | 510.51$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb0…1b9ebacked Yes | 9c | 331.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 10c | 321.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…432fbacked Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…70e6backed Yes | 14c | 250$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…b8d9backed Yes | 11c | 173.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbde…1dd2backed Yes | 12c | 163.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbb…558cbacked Yes | 22c | 157.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 10c | 131.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xe79f…6bf3backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…04d6backed Yes | 11c | 129.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b75…d0edbacked Yes | 11c | 119.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0f…6715backed Yes | 40c | 104.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…1ed7backed Yes | 33c | 101.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa331…29b9backed Yes | 14c | 88.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…52e7backed Yes | 30c | 84.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7139…1f88backed Yes | 18c | 82.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +70%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…0099backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…728bbacked No | 74c | 58.65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 55c | 49.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 22c | 48.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -74%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…2bc5backed No | 71c | 36.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 58c | 33.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on January 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C or below on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on January 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on January 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.