NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Jets: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aeaaee284f9e4b87d02fa8feaa17904c82aee6be3b9e18f183f21d33e5ab0a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,303
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,303 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x145c…43bcbacked Over | 48c | 37,896$18,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,796.27 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Under | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8069…22cdbacked Under | 54c | 18,300$9,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,882 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4052…eb90backed Over | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,100 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…0e3ebacked Over | 46c | 11,300$5,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,102 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 9,980$5,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,089.8 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0496…f985backed Under | 54c | 8,000$4,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,320 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Under | 55c | 3,078$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.85 | 315 | 46.3%146 W · 169 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 2,238$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.05 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 51c | 1,306$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.29 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 348 | 45.4%158 W · 190 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 45c | 1,119$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.5 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…4694backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5b…b993backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 33.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…d918backed Under | 55c | 20.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Jets: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. JetsJets won
- Penguins vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Jets (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.