TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Henrik Kristoffersen (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,650
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,521

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,650 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c11,036$20 inLost-$19.942448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a3…63afbacked Yes20c493.11$100 inLost-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe876…42b6backed Yes8c331.83$25 inLost-$251030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes16c324.35$51 inLost-$513116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-64.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1eca…3a06backed Yes4c290$10 inLost-$10.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes6c251.42$15 inLost-$15520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53f4…0e38backed Yes8c200$15 inLost-$15944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes18c130$23 inLost-$23.32839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes11c95.39$10 inLost-$10.47310%0 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdce…97aebacked Yes13c80$10 inLost-$10.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3008…2489backed Yes36c41.67$15 inLost-$15922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-56.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No68c22.48$15 inWon+$7.29837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.