Olympics · resolved market
Will Atle Lie McGrath (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f592016396213f2d09336873bb4c3595d32f9a66aceef5ecf83dc472090a607
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x359f…fa80backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…05c1backed Yes | 11c | 700$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 10cpaid | +255.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Yes | 69c | 611.63$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…5fe6backed Yes | 20c | 502.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 19c | 351$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed No | 78c | 312.49$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53f4…0e38backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 18c | 278$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Yes | 13c | 275$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes | 19c | 260.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 20c | 238$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 75c | 234.35$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 76c | 229.58$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 31c | 216.15$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.14 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 14c | 204.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 60c | 201.46$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 75c | 190.52$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 166.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 21c | 158.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 65c | 124.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…ce76backed Yes | 21c | 112.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 79c | 90.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 80c | 79.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363b…fb76backed Yes | 26c | 78.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed No | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…5348backed No | 25c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 17c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 25c | 50.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…d2c9backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed No | 25c | 43.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…2489backed Yes | 71c | 33.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…3572backed Yes | 73c | 31.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed No | 51c | 29.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…01bfbacked Yes | 71c | 26.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 72cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf094…4389backed Yes | 75c | 16.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atle Lie McGrath (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?this page
- Will Clement Noel (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Eduard Hallberg (FIN) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Henrik Kristoffersen (NOR) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Loic Meillard (SUI) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?Yes won
- Will Lucas Pinheiro Braathen (BRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Manuel Feller (AUT) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
- Will Steven Amiez (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Alpine - Men's Slalom at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.