Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b4e8c4f5a7872dc6bdb2f69c333c31723ae94f761b58d78dd741d7932d0da5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31ae…ab5ebacked Yes | 5c | 7,268$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.63 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…b563backed No | 21c | 367.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.97 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef0…9c46backed Yes | 15c | 338.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 6c | 292.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.72 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 42c | 271.11$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.13 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 60c | 252.8$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 65c | 159.78$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 70c | 125.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 13c | 101.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 99.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bd…3c32backed Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc56…37e7backed Yes | 70c | 78.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 55c | 53.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…6cf6backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…ccfdbacked Yes | 57c | 43.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3154…67f5backed Yes | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fa…51d1backed Yes | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 75c | 37.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 54c | 36.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 36c | 33.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…e1d0backed Yes | 75c | 30.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 70c | 27.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 46c | 27.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 77c | 26.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 72c | 23.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…032cbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…1c9cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.31per pick | 50cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d0…38e1backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6782…2870backed Yes | 67c | 15.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on February 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or higher on February 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.