South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-11-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b80547fe067a9bcb957af4d5a4799217140537a06b015ca9253e5a545d20f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 45c | 25,000$11,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,125 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 56c | 19,972$11,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,862.07 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 26c | 4,100$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,034 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2839…0efebacked Yes | 26c | 3,380$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,492.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 2,400$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772.02 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 57c | 2,063$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.21 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 53c | 1,196$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.68 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 70c | 1,135$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.17 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 1,008$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.27 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 138 | 21%29 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 41c | 880$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 29c | 735.14$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.58 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 39c | 671.66$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.68 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked No | 74c | 208$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.92 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Yes | 57c | 192.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 24c | 164$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.64 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8e2backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…1356backed No | 76c | 155.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…c2bcbacked Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed No | 74c | 126$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed No | 75c | 119$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.25 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…148bbacked Yes | 26c | 114$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked No | 74c | 114$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 71c | 110$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…a953backed Yes | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5032…d300backed Yes | 25c | 96.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 74c | 93$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…bdecbacked Yes | 25c | 71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Yes | 26c | 67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192e…3e13backed No | 77c | 60.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…bb7fbacked No | 56c | 56.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…3d7abacked No | 77c | 56.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 65c | 40.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 37c | 31.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…9095backed Yes | 59c | 28.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked No | 76c | 24.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 58c | 21.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 76c | 17.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-11-16?this page
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?No won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.