TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe5f3…bb7f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
51
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$21.57
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+482%+$234.43
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+122.3%+$33
Will Georgia win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+128.2%+$51.16
Will Korea Republic vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$28.02
Will Korea Republic win on 2025-11-18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$234.77
Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+132.3%+$21.65
Will Poland win on 2025-11-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$29.55
Will Northern Ireland vs. Luxembourg end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+35.9%+$4.17
Will Croatia win on 2025-11-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$58.97
Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10.82
Will Germany win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+26.3%+$9.92
Will Qatar win on 2025-11-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+93.2%+$15.34
Will Israel win on 2025-11-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$30.47
Will Ukraine vs. Iceland end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$16.48
All 15 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$18.01
Lions vs. Eaglesbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$68.19
Chiefs vs. Broncosbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$60.38
Ravens vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$14.19
Seahawks vs. Ramsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20.98
Panthers vs. Falconsbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+180.1%+$29.76
Bengals vs. Steelersbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$29.55
Texans vs. Titansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+78.7%+$22.45
Packers vs. Giantsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50.21
Bears vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$22.98
Chargers vs. Jaguarsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$88.8
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST1010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-87%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bulls vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$32.08
Knicks vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$18.87
Rockets vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$19.39
Hornets vs. Pacersbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$13.02
Knicks vs. Heatbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$33.31
Pacers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+29.8%+$15.32
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$56.64
Bucks vs. Cavaliersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$49.97
Magic vs. Rocketsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$56.94
Kings vs. Spursbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$28.39
All 10 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stars vs. Oilersbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+122.2%+$22.59
Hurricanes vs. Wildbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$18.69
Canadiens vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$39.53
Kings vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+30.7%+$3.89
Islanders vs. Avalanchebacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$10.36
All 5 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Banfield win on 2025-11-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+38.9%+$7.33
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-11-16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$31.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+525%+$52.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+132.6%+$396.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$10.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$21.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Hooker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$16.94
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$69.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$13.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-11-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$16.65
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.