Fifa International · resolved market
Will Northern Ireland vs. Luxembourg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc78b4e16653fdb8d015ae319d1aecdb5f4021982b5248ca1bc5d0586895fca9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 4,549$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.35 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 9c | 2,512$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.72 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 2,275$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.16 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 2,232$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.29 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.95 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ea…bf18backed Yes | 25c | 1,443$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…a9babacked No | 75c | 1,433$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 21c | 1,416$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…ad31backed Yes | 21c | 1,297$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes | 31c | 1,290$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 176 | 64.8%114 W · 62 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdb…62e0backed Yes | 18c | 1,185$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 22c | 1,035$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.95 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 672.91$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.52 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 24c | 515.96$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 293 | 43%126 W · 167 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2c26backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9659…f19abacked Yes | 25c | 497.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 75c | 492.92$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.01 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 450.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.04 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 367.78$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Yes | 27c | 310$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Yes | 19c | 304.79$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed Yes | 17c | 287.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8158…9a02backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Yes | 27c | 209.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 19c | 205.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes | 25c | 194.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 70c | 181.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…e2f4backed Yes | 26c | 167.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb2…b043backed No | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 77c | 125.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…1031backed Yes | 28c | 121.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…df55backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e7…631fbacked No | 71c | 112.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 20c | 107.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 78c | 100.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd8…557abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f3…0d57backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 71c | 99.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…6877backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Yes | 24c | 87.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 74c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 66c | 75.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed No | 70c | 57.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 369 | 39.6%146 W · 223 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 71c | 56.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…e04bbacked Yes | 23c | 55.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 23c | 53.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…c944backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 75c | 47.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b3…62e0backed No | 66c | 43.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 481 | 47.8%230 W · 251 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…65efbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 28c | 38.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a22…d466backed No | 78c | 38.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…82e7backed No | 78c | 37.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 73c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d3…3d7abacked No | 73c | 26.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed No | 79c | 22.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…22efbacked No | 80c | 20.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 74c | 17.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 71c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…bb7fbacked No | 74c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Northern Ireland vs. Luxembourg end in a draw?this page
- Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-17?No won
- Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.