Fifa International · resolved market
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8380b2ff77e225b1f0f0d257584af6ededddf005a69075cab10d0b8ef829d811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf54…e5bebacked Yes | 16c | 5,046$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 4,930$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.91 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 223 | 37.2%83 W · 140 L | +20.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 13c | 2,241$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.43 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 1,977$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.38 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c80…1c3bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,400$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.88 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 11c | 1,005$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Yes | 16c | 855.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…7b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x21c1…692cbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…593dbacked Yes | 19c | 512.07$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2c26backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…4900backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Yes | 13c | 394.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x630d…e04bbacked Yes | 4c | 357.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36b…a540backed Yes | 16c | 323.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 9c | 276.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bab…6832backed Yes | 19c | 215.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 16c | 199.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 15c | 132.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…1031backed Yes | 16c | 121.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed Yes | 15c | 117.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 21c | 92.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Yes | 13c | 90.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 13c | 79.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831d…e1babacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luxembourg win on 2025-11-17?this page
- Will Northern Ireland vs. Luxembourg end in a draw?No won
- Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.