TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bears vs. Vikings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bearsof Bears, Vikings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,928,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,038,328

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,928,827 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 739 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Bears40c250,258$100,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149,725.7386547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Vikings29c175,575$51,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,373.630043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Vikings60c115,000$69,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,149.9616836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Vikings58c70,635$41,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,055.6716545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ec…2493backed Vikings59c61,299$35,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,866.291118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-52.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bears41c57,175$23,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,737.3431240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Vikings58c56,132$32,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,556.375453.7%29 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Vikings59c53,397$31,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,504.2719553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0549…c052backed Bears41c53,368$21,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,487.385855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Vikings60c52,000$31,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,3805236.5%19 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked Vikings59c50,000$29,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,591.462227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Bears39c44,149$17,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,931.0513450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bears72c42,748$30,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,010.7819235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Bears41c40,000$16,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,599.999359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Vikings59c40,000$23,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,499.9820755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Bears41c40,000$16,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,599.897440.5%30 W · 44 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bears71c38,273$27,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,032.6973651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8605…750fbacked Bears79c36,998$29,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,613.49683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick71cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf209…97e1backed Vikings59c33,885$19,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,992728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Vikings60c32,000$19,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,219.8519645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Bears77c30,922$23,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,252.313070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Bears42c29,807$12,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,288.16850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Bears42c25,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,50013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Vikings60c24,588$14,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,846.7411649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9105…97f2backed Bears42c22,849$9,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,252.311346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Bears70c20,760$14,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,22810061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a2d…d491backed Vikings1c20,169$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Vikings60c20,000$11,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,90017348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Vikings60c20,000$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,000837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-46.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3db…0b3cbacked Bears41c20,000$8,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,800650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Bears41c18,966$7,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,189.9417041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bears73c18,153$13,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,962.7720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Bears42c17,369$7,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,074.0514252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Vikings59c17,120$10,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,10118650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Vikings29c17,001$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0003432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Bears41c16,417$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,716.2114951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Bears70c14,560$10,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,36810650.9%54 W · 52 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bears60c13,822$8,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,526.4550242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357e…2a0cbacked Vikings59c12,500$7,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3754944.9%22 W · 27 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8585…58d0backed Bears42c11,000$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,3803100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+91.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Bears40c10,561$4,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,369.254134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Vikings23c10,454$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,427.1219551.3%100 W · 95 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9249…4f16backed Vikings59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,90017647.7%84 W · 92 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79a5…6a63backed Vikings59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,900922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-55.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Vikings30c10,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00012944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Vikings26c9,626$2,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.226245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e1…8b89backed Bears42c9,600$4,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,568475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa3…666bbacked Vikings59c9,500$5,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Bears42c9,484$3,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,500.916338.1%24 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Vikings32c9,470$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,036.968532.9%28 W · 57 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ac…16d3backed Bears42c9,300$3,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,394425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Vikings60c9,000$5,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,43026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bears40c8,537$3,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,122.1130743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Bears41c8,516$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,016.127557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Vikings60c8,248$4,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,948.7514349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Bears41c8,180$3,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,833.0724053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Vikings1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804515.6%7 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick2cpaid+931.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Vikings59c8,000$4,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,719.9914757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bears41c7,463$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,403.41,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0dd…b5a6backed Vikings59c7,300$4,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,307250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Bears42c7,140$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,141.4813142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Bears39c7,100$2,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3313545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Bears61c7,034$4,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,760.4931848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Vikings58c6,998$4,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,036.7418044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf60…c76ebacked Vikings59c6,900$4,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,071540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+45%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bears44c6,803$2,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,817.1747738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7392…6e13backed Vikings59c6,800$4,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,012333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc86b…c791backed Bears42c6,200$2,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,596580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+63.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Vikings59c6,000$3,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,54017648.9%86 W · 90 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Bears65c6,000$3,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,09836246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bears41c6,000$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,539.9883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bears70c5,625$3,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.323244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8149…4718backed Vikings59c5,600$3,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,304333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-53.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Bears72c5,439$3,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.6231543.2%136 W · 179 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Bears42c5,357$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,107.141428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Vikings48c5,242$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5003560%21 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Vikings59c5,085$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005650%28 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…4173backed Bears41c5,000$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,95016036.3%58 W · 102 L+7.3wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Bears70c4,880$3,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.0210462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bears67c4,708$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.0868446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Bears39c4,562$1,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.9821254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Bears54c4,518$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,068.2616254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Vikings59c4,500$2,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6657732.5%25 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ce0…e210backed Vikings59c4,500$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked Bears68c4,317$2,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,378.963748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Vikings58c4,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3204330.2%13 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb08e…bb22backed Bears42c4,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3202100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+81.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x445f…d91cbacked Bears41c3,840$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,265.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bears47c3,596$1,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.0127348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Bears54c3,525$1,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.6631854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Vikings60c3,450$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.514945.6%68 W · 81 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Bears41c3,379$1,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.388343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bears41c3,082$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.265048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Bears41c3,000$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.9423937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5be…46cebacked Vikings31c2,910$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$902156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd481…cdcbbacked Vikings17c2,904$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bears46c2,849$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,540.6623850.8%121 W · 117 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Bears40c2,846$1,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.273357.6%19 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Bears40c2,751$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.9212744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Vikings60c2,740$1,636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.342045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.