NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef8e744ba69f124f9ee14dd4074fbb0f64ffb0ac1a49672a0d94488024e260fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Vikings, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bears | 57c | 13,524$7,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,838.57 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Vikings | 45c | 10,893$4,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,892.85 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Bears | 55c | 9,254$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,164.42 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Vikings | 43c | 8,201$3,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,526.31 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Vikings | 43c | 6,445$2,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,771.41 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…adbfbacked Bears | 57c | 6,000$3,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Vikings | 43c | 1,915$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.38 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Bears | 55c | 1,802$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.95 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Vikings | 43c | 1,500$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e99…dea0backed Vikings | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c09…9863backed Bears | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Vikings | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Bears | 56c | 762$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.28 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Bears | 54c | 740.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.74 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bears | 56c | 553.15$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.66 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Bears | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vikings | 42c | 416.62$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Vikings | 45c | 319$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bears | 55c | 283.98$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Bears | 54c | 259.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Vikings | 42c | 246.83$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.67 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Bears | 58c | 241.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Vikings | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Vikings | 43c | 209.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Vikings | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bears | 53c | 197.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32da…b112backed Bears | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Vikings | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed Bears | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2059…5203backed Vikings | 46c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Bears | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Vikings | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Bears | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe7…68f3backed Bears | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Vikings | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Bears | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Bears | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Vikings | 44c | 59.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bears | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Bears | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa798…4240backed Bears | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01b8…446abacked Bears | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Vikings (-0.5)Bears won
- Bears vs. VikingsBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H MoneylineBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.