NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Vikings (-0.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32ad95e0d92e2da410cdf8e3ea82150e01e82912e4bec2179820931e33a1ed85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Vikings, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e2d…5efcbacked Bears | 48c | 215$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…2b92backed Bears | 48c | 211$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…9ea6backed Bears | 48c | 201$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbd…8e99backed Vikings | 52c | 201$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…401cbacked Vikings | 52c | 196$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…5d7dbacked Bears | 48c | 194$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…c987backed Vikings | 52c | 192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…4f36backed Bears | 48c | 184$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…2f56backed Vikings | 52c | 179$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2336…a7bbbacked Bears | 48c | 176$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…e80cbacked Vikings | 52c | 170$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…2fd1backed Vikings | 52c | 167$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…efc0backed Vikings | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Vikings (-0.5)this page
- Bears vs. VikingsBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H MoneylineBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.