NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4103972cdb14a7f0847d359f7a1c1fe730f00daf1d9a55f33dbb15ba32bcfa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Under | 53c | 30,300$15,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,343.48 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Over | 47c | 15,319$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 10,247$4,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,818.32 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 9,305$4,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,421.19 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 7,000$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,290 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 2,635$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.04 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 47c | 2,635$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.24 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 2,212$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.74 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Under | 54c | 1,913$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.28 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 48c | 1,852$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.74 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 1,648$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.41 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 1,302$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 52c | 1,042$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.31 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6d…1ba1backed Under | 54c | 1,019$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.52 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 53c | 755$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.85 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 48c | 728$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.44 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Under | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 111 | 56.8%63 W · 48 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 311$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.17 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Under | 52c | 149.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 131.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Under | 54c | 75.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Over | 48c | 54.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf580…516ebacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Under | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Under | 53c | 29.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5this page
- 1H Spread: Vikings (-0.5)Bears won
- Bears vs. VikingsBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H MoneylineBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.