NFL · resolved market
Bears vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02db451ba6dbdba12be1f0b50a3739c4a3f25a11678150dc18021033553f7973
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8159…8d5cbacked Under | 57c | 233.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…dedebacked Over | 44c | 185$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…e673backed Under | 56c | 178$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…401cbacked Over | 44c | 169$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…fbc0backed Over | 44c | 166$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe0…8348backed Over | 44c | 162$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5072…c02abacked Under | 56c | 160$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa405…fa4bbacked Over | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…2f56backed Under | 56c | 157$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…213abacked Under | 56c | 153$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 43c | 152$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…fb9abacked Under | 56c | 151$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 43c | 92.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Vikings (-0.5)Bears won
- Bears vs. VikingsBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H MoneylineBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)Bears won
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.