NFL · resolved market
Spread: Vikings (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b8b72e0b6b5bf065b4f1047132b10ed1aa904d9348c4f539223f256c20b2b72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bearsof Vikings, Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $151,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Vikings | 53c | 70,524$37,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,377.74 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…c052backed Bears | 47c | 70,000$32,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,100 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bears | 46c | 41,121$19,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,121.49 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Vikings | 54c | 35,000$18,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,900 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Vikings | 54c | 9,815$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 181 | 40.9%74 W · 107 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Vikings | 53c | 6,666$3,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,532.98 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bears | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Vikings | 53c | 4,969$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.48 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Bears | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.32 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Vikings | 53c | 4,080$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.4 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bears | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bears | 46c | 2,822$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.06 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bears | 46c | 2,301$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.44 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Bears | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bears | 46c | 1,728$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.81 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Bears | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bears | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bears | 47c | 891$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.23 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Bears | 49c | 510.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.86 | 167 | 37.7%63 W · 104 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Vikings | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Vikings | 51c | 499.35$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.67 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d7…c17bbacked Vikings | 53c | 420$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.6 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf050…91debacked Bears | 48c | 420$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97e…0b97backed Vikings | 52c | 420$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Vikings | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Vikings | 54c | 333.33$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Vikings | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Vikings | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Vikings | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…f0b8backed Vikings | 54c | 231$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -9.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Vikings | 53c | 226.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Vikings | 52c | 208.29$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 194 | 59.3%115 W · 79 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Vikings | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Vikings | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…c2eabacked Vikings | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bears | 46c | 179.63$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Bears | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bears | 46c | 147$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Vikings | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Vikings | 53c | 133.38$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e3…6548backed Vikings | 54c | 107.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Bears | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…3864backed Bears | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bears | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Bears | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Vikings | 52c | 95.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Vikings | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Vikings | 54c | 92.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Vikings | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfc89…4ca1backed Bears | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Bears | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Vikings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929f…def4backed Vikings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4696…09f2backed Vikings | 54c | 35.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…6197backed Vikings | 54c | 30.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…d9f6backed Vikings | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Vikings | 48c | 26.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vikings (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Vikings (-0.5)Bears won
- Bears vs. VikingsBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H MoneylineBears won
- Bears vs. Vikings: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 47.5Under won
- Bears vs. Vikings: O/U 48.5Under won
- Spread: Vikings (-3.5)Bears won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.