South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01b8adbb6dbfefdde82caf7efffc0f14b640ca3a824e46fc4fb86eac1b742da3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 45c | 25,000$11,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,250 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 55c | 24,545$13,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,045.25 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 5,399$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 56c | 925$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.98 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Yes | 38c | 592.11$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked No | 57c | 456.14$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.14 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 62c | 359.07$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.54 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 30c | 268.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed No | 58c | 241$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 37c | 234.49$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 57c | 190$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.43 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked No | 61c | 167.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 54c | 146$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 54c | 144$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked No | 58c | 118$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed No | 59c | 115$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 38c | 95.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Yes | 41c | 87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 57c | 60.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bd…bc56backed Yes | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Yes | 42c | 52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Yes | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…0730backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e5…81acbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf447…3fe7backed Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Yes | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-11-16?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2025-11-16?Yes won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.