Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: de Minaur vs. Cazaux
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b85ba78c48d1db5882785deadf4a3f8731f08873ea9cfc523268e26f97df472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- de Minaurof de Minaur, Cazaux
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cazaux | 23c | 14,157$3,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,318.25 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Cazaux | 9c | 5,211$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.97 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Cazaux | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed de Minaur | 76c | 4,299$3,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.2 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed de Minaur | 75c | 4,089$3,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.61 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cazaux | 11c | 3,875$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.75 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed de Minaur | 79c | 2,373$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.02 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Cazaux | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Cazaux | 11c | 1,300$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cazaux | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cazaux | 11c | 917.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cazaux | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Cazaux | 11c | 569.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Cazaux | 16c | 480$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbc…a89cbacked Cazaux | 9c | 399.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Cazaux | 10c | 309.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Cazaux | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Cazaux | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Cazaux | 24c | 281$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Cazaux | 24c | 207.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cazaux | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cazaux | 26c | 188.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…53e9backed Cazaux | 34c | 175.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…3a28backed Cazaux | 9c | 172.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked de Minaur | 72c | 158.33$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e9…e20fbacked de Minaur | 68c | 147.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Cazaux | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed de Minaur | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Cazaux | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8099…2f05backed de Minaur | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Cazaux | 20c | 84.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Cazaux | 16c | 67.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Cazaux | 31c | 67.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed de Minaur | 63c | 24.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.