Fifa International · resolved market
Will IR Iran win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bacebc4b3c781cc779488a797c245e58c7214b6da6e77eba55c53d4ca270ea1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 24c | 1,848$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.02 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 73c | 1,694$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.28 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 20c | 1,591$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 25c | 1,255$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.06 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 8c | 1,216$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.69 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 72c | 1,042$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.76 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 72c | 1,027$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.5 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 24c | 999.47$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cab…e9c4backed Yes | 78c | 408.1$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f2…d036backed Yes | 73c | 300$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…5822backed Yes | 75c | 289.57$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…2f7dbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf285…ab24backed Yes | 78c | 91.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 92 | 53.3%49 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Yes | 79c | 84.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…34e8backed Yes | 73c | 76.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 70.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…631cbacked Yes | 60c | 61.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 65c | 50.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 69cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ab…614bbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…3184backed Yes | 79c | 20.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…a526backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +58%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33d6…afdabacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc142…d24cbacked Yes | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will IR Iran win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will IR Iran vs. Tanzania end in a draw?No won
- Will Tanzania win on 2025-10-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.